7 Morning Links on Gold and More

by Sean Brodrick on October 10, 2011

Here are some of the stories I’m reading this morning. Some of the stories I’ve linked here are contradictory, but this is one confused market.  We’ll have to see what happens when overhead resistance is tested this week.

1. Gold at a Major Crossroads

The COT report has now reached a maximum bullish level on the commercial contracts. In the past this has always marked major bottom turning points.

gold blees chart

2. Spot Gold Gains on Asian Buying

The spot price of gold is higher in Europe Monday after Chinese buyers returned to the market overnight following a week-long holiday, and industry participants expect the yellow metal to extend its gains as physical demand for bullion escalates.

3. Gold rises 1 percent after EU banks pledge

German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy said after talks on Sunday that they aimed to come up with a sustainable answer for Greece’s debt problems and agree how to recapitalize European banks.

4. U.S. Recession Threat Weakens

A string of stronger-than-projected statistics — capped by the news on Oct. 7 of a 103,000 rise in payrolls last month — has prompted economists at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Macroeconomic Advisers LLC to raise their growth forecasts for third quarter growth to 2.5% from about 2%. That’s nearly double the second quarter’s 1.3% rate and would be the fastest growth in a year.

5. A Recession Forecast That Has Been Reliable Before

LET’S face it: economic forecasting is an act of sheer hubris. Which, of course, only incites people to do it.

6. Recession Officially Over, U.S. Incomes Kept Falling

Between June 2009, when the recession officially ended, and June 2011, inflation-adjusted median household income fell 6.7 percent, to $49,909, according to a study by two former Census Bureau officials. During the recession — from December 2007 to June 2009 — household income fell 3.2 percent.

7. SPX and Bollinger Band Analysis

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{ 1 comment… read it below or add one }

cashless October 12, 2011 at 8:55 am

Sean, I am wondering what happens to the price or gold when (not if) Greece defaults in early November. Part of me says that the price will test the 1900s again due to fear and the need for security. This will cause gold to rise since deman exceeds supply. Part of me says that most of the European Banks will have to sell gold hand over fist to meet the probable run on the bank by depositors, the need by the central banks to protect their currency and the huge and rippling haircut the bond holders will face. This will cause gold to fall since supply exceeds demand. I can see either scenario. Any thoughts?

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